Inflation Nowcasting - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
网页The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.
Nowcasting (economics) - Wikipedia
网页Nowcasting in economics is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of an economic indicator. The term is a portmanteau of "now" and "forecasting" and originates in meteorology.
Nowcasting: Improve decision making in a crisis | McKinsey
网页2021年5月20日 · Nowcasting uses complex econometric techniques and contemporaneous data from a broad set of sources to provide a timely view of economic indicators and drivers and bring insights several months forward, enabling more …
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
网页Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed.
New York Fed Staff Nowcast - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
网页The model produces a “nowcast” of real GDP growth, incorporating a wide range of macroeconomic data as they become available. Through the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, we aim to read the real-time flow of information and …
A Real-Time Assessment of Inflation Nowcasting at the Cleveland …
网页2023年3月6日 · We evaluate inflation nowcasting accuracy over a long sample spanning 1999:Q2 through 2022:Q4 and a shorter sample spanning the period since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, a period associated with very high economic uncertainty and volatile movements in economic variables, including inflation. 3
pr 20230306 cleveland feds inflation nowcasting model
网页2023年3月6日 · New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland finds that the Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasting model has tended to outperform surveys of professional forecasters, including since the start of the pandemic.
网页Nowcasting exploits timely data to obtain early estimates of the state of the economy and updates these estimates continuously as new macroeconomic data are released. In this chapter, we describe how the framework used to nowcast GDP has evolved and is applied worldwide. Keywords: Dynamic factor models, forecasting, nowcasting JEL codes: C33 ...
EIU Nowcasting: Methodology and FAQs - Economist Intelligence Unit
网页2020年2月3日 · The EIU’s Nowcasting model uses a technique called Dynamic Factor Modeling, which uses the flow of a wide range of economic variable’s data releases throughout the quarter to extract signal about the state of the economy (GDP).
The Fed - Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World
网页2024年7月9日 · Nowcasting exploits timely data to obtain early estimates of the state of the economy and updates these estimates continuously as new macroeconomic data are released. In this chapter, we describe how the framework used to nowcast GDP has evolved and is applied worldwide.
GDPNow (GDPNOW) | FRED - FRED | St. Louis Fed
网页4 天之前 · GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches.
网页Because of the emphasis on the present, they dubbed it \nowcasting," a term originally used in meteorology for forecasting the weather in the present and in the next few hours. The model that we describe in this paper, developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, builds on that contribution. This nowcasting model extracts the latent
Nowcasting | The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
网页2011年7月8日 · The problem of predicting the present, the very near future, and the very recent past is called nowcasting and is the subject of this chapter. Nowcasting is particularly relevant for those key macroeconomic variables that are collected at low frequency, typically on a quarterly basis, and released with a substantial lag.
Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning ... - IMF
网页2022年3月11日 · This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality.
Skilful nowcasting of extreme precipitation with NowcastNet
网页2023年7月5日 · Nature - A new nowcasting model unifies physical-evolution schemes and deep-learning methods to accurately predict precipitation with lead times of up to 3 h, including extreme-precipitation...
Nowcasting epidemics of novel pathogens: lessons from COVID-19
网页2021年3月15日 · Epidemic nowcasting broadly refers to assessing the current state by understanding key pathogenic, epidemiologic, clinical and socio-behavioral characteristics of an ongoing outbreak.
Nowcasting Inflation - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
网页2024年3月7日 · This chapter summarizes the mixed-frequency methods commonly used for nowcasting inflation. It discusses the importance of key high-frequency data in producing timely and accurate inflation nowcasts.
Skilful precipitation nowcasting using deep generative models …
网页2021年9月29日 · We show that generative nowcasting can provide probabilistic predictions that improve forecast value and support operational utility, and at resolutions and lead times where alternative methods...
Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation - Federal Reserve …
网页2015年11月4日 · We propose a new and parsimonious model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that relies on relatively few variables.
Nowcasting - IMF
网页Nowcasting refers to the practice of using recently published data to update key economic indicators that are published with a significant lag, such as real GDP. The aim of this course is to familiarize participants with cutting-edge nowcasting tools that facilitate the use mixed-frequency data in regression models.