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在此，我们表明使用新提出的紧急约束（EC）来约束模型预测，可以在全球范围内将核心干旱指标——最长年度干旱期（LAD）——预测的不确定性降低10%—26%。经EC校正后的预测结果显示，与目前预测的未来作用力情景相比，LAD的平均增幅将高出42%—44% ...