Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.

With a debate and a second assassination attempt in the rearview mirror, the Harris-Trump contest is by any measure too close ...

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...

Find out who is leading the 2024 US election polls with real-time updates on polling data, key issues and swing states here ...

How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so ...

After running neck-and-neck with Trump, Harris is ahead in all polls now, according to realclearpolling.com. Harris enjoys a ...

Presidential debates are one of those things. Last week's debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President ...

Many polls show Vice President Kamala Harris holds a small lead nationally over former President Trump less than 50 days out ...

Polling from the New York Times paints a similar picture of the race. In 2020, Biden had an 8-point lead in September, a ...

Even as many pollsters have tried to change how they conduct and/or weight their polls to prevent what happened in 2016 and ...

And based on early reviews from the American public, it seems like Harris came out on top. As of 1 p.m. Eastern, 538 has ...

New polling shows Tuesday night's debate had at least a small impact on where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand with less ...